History Point Estimation Techniques (Planning Poker)

Once the concept of History Points is understood, it is necessary to apply a structured technique for the team to allocate them in a collaborative and consistent manner.

The most popular and effective technique for this is Planning Poker.

It is a consensus-based method that uses numbered cards (following the modified Fibonacci scale) for team members to estimate the relative effort of User Stories.

Its main value lies not only in assigning a number, but in facilitating discussion and ensuring a shared understanding of the scope before development begins.

Preparation: Prioritized Backlog and Clear DoD

Before starting an estimation session with Planning Poker, a good preparation is essential:

Prioritized Backlog: The Product Owner should have the backlog prepared, with the User Stories to be estimated ordered by priority (at least the top). This ensures that the team focuses its effort on estimating the most relevant.

Clear "Done" Definition (DoD): The team must have an agreed and shared DoD.

This is crucial because the estimate must encompass all the work required to meet the DoD (coding, testing, documentation, etc.), not just a portion of it. Without a clear DoD, estimates will be inconsistent.

Basic Understanding of History Points: The team must understand the concept of relative estimation and the scale to be used.

Establishing the Baseline (5-Point History)

The first step during the estimation session is to establish a baseline for relativity.

The team selects a User Story from the backlog that is:

• Of medium size (not too small or too large).
• Well understood by all team members.

This story is assigned a reference value, commonly "5" story points.

This story becomes the anchor: all other stories will be judged against this one (is it more, less or equal effort than our 5 point story?) and against other stories already judged.

The Voting Process (Planning Poker) and Divergence Discussion

The typical Planning Poker process for each story is as follows:

Presentation and Discussion: The Product Owner (or whoever knows the story) briefly presents the story.

The development team asks questions to clarify the scope and ensure that everyone understands it well.

Individual Estimation: Each member of the development team secretly selects a Planning Poker card (or uses fingers/app) that represents their estimate of relative effort.

Simultaneous Reveal: On the count of three, everyone reveals their card at the same time. This avoids anchoring bias (being influenced by the estimate of others, especially seniors).

Discussion of Divergences: If the estimates are very different (especially if there are outliers, the highest and the lowest), people with those extreme estimates are asked to explain their reasoning.

This discussion is crucial, as it often reveals misunderstandings about the scope or different knowled