Counterfactual thinking: [what if...?]

Counterfactual thinking is a mental process of imagining alternatives to past events or outcomes—thinking about "what could have been" or "what would have happened if..." certain circumstances had been different, or if we had acted differently.

This type of thinking is common and can have both positive and negative consequences for our emotional state and motivation.

Nature and Types of Counterfactuals

Counterfactual thinking often arises after experiencing a negative outcome or an unexpected event, although it can also occur after a success.

It involves a mental comparison between the current reality and an imagined alternative.

Two main types of counterfactuals can be distinguished:

• Upward Counterfactuals: Imagining how things could have been better. Example: "If I had studied harder, I would have passed the exam." These often generate short-term negative emotions (such as regret or frustration) but can motivate improvement in the future.

• Downward Counterfactuals: Imagining how things could have been worse. Example: "I had a minor accident, but it could have been much worse." These tend to generate short-term positive emotions (such as relief or gratitude) but may not be as motivating to change.

Functions of Counterfactual Thinking

Counterfactual thinking serves several psychological functions. It can help us make sense of past events, learn from our mistakes, and prepare for similar future situations.

Imagining how a negative outcome could have been avoided can lead to the identification of strategies to improve performance in the future.

It also plays a role in emotional regulation. Comparing ourselves to worse outcomes (downward counterfactuals) can make us feel better about our current situation, while thinking about how things could have been better (upward counterfactuals) can generate dissatisfaction but also the impetus for change.

Emotional and Behavioral Consequences

The ease with which we can imagine an alternative to a past event influences the intensity of our emotional reaction.

For example, missing a flight by one minute may generate more frustration and counterfactual thinking than missing it by an hour, because it is easier to imagine how that small delay could have been avoided.

Counterfactual thinking can be a source of rumination and regret if we focus excessively on how things could have been better without taking corrective action.

However, if used constructively, it can be a valuable tool for motivation, problem-solving, and adaptation.

The key is to balance reflection on the past with an action-oriented focus on the present and future.