The sniper's fallacy

The sniper fallacy describes the human tendency to identify significant patterns in random data or events, or to emphasize similarities while ignoring differences, in order to fit a preconceived conclusion.

This bias is closely related to the confirmation bias, since both involve a selection and interpretation of information that favors our previous ideas.

Artificial Pattern Creation

The name of this fallacy comes from the metaphor of a shooter randomly shooting at a barn wall and then drawing the bull's-eye around the densest grouping of shots, presenting himself as an expert sniper.

Similarly, in everyday life, we may select certain data or coincidences that support a theory or belief, while discarding information that does not fit.

An example would be to dream of a number and, even if that exact number does not come up in the lottery, to manipulate the winning numbers through arithmetic operations so that the result coincides with the dreamed number, thus confirming a supposed premonition.

Entrenchment of Ideas and Conspiracy Theories

This facility to find or create patterns that confirm our ideas means that certain beliefs, even conspiracy theories, can become deeply rooted in a person's mind.

If an idea settles in, the person may begin to selectively seek information that confirms it, thus conditioning his or her entire perception and future decisions.

Strategies to Counter the Fallacy

To avoid falling into the sniper fallacy, it is crucial to avoid the desire to "be right" at all costs, a