Decision Criteria: Predictor versus Performance

The Three Final Decision Factors

Once the interviews and scores have been completed, it is time to make the final decision. This decision should be based on the answer to three fundamental questions:

• Does the candidate meet the characteristics (competencies) that were defined for the position?
• Of the candidates who do, which one best fits the profile?
• Is the candidate really interested in the position?

Assessing the Candidate's Real Interest

The third factor, candidate interest, should not be taken lightly. It is not enough that the candidate has verbally expressed interest.

The interviewer must look at implicit factors that demonstrate genuine interest: Did the candidate respond prom ptly to calls and emails during the process?

Was he/she participative and engaged during the interview?

Did he or she proactively inquire about the progress of the selection process?

These signs are often more telling than a simple statement of interest.

Verifying the Validity of the Process (Selection Rates)

Before deciding, it is crucial to verify the validity of the selection process itself.

Did we have enough candidates to make a real decision? Ideally, the "selection rate" should be at least ten candidates per vacancy, and the "prime rate" (candidates meeting the minimum requirements) should be at least 50%, or five viable candidates.

If the rate is lower, there is a risk of "forced recruitment".

If after a lengthy process you have only one viable candidate, you should analyze whether the urgency justifies the hiring, but do not stop recruiting, as the hiring may not be successful.

The Validity Dilemma: Performance Criteria vs. Predictor

How do we know if our process was valid?

The validity of a selection depends on the correct relationship between two key concepts: the "Performance Criteria" and the "Predictor".

Performance Criteria: This is the definition of what we consider "optimal performance" in the position. It is the result we want to obtain.

For example, "A Java developer who can program at a certain level of difficulty".

Predictor: It is the factor, requirement or piece of evidence that we look for in the candidate (in the interview or CV) because we believe it is directly related to the Performance Criteria.

It is the indicator we use to hire.

The Critical Relationship between Predictor and Performance

The fundamental rule of valid selection is that the predictors we use must be logically related to the performance criteria.

Valid Predictor: "Computer science graduates who have worked two years programming Java in startups" is a predictor that is likely to be related to the criterion "programming Java with difficulty".

Erroneous Predictor: A very common mistake is to hire based on predictors that have no relation to performance.

For example, if we are looking for a floor salesperson for a food business (Performance Criterion: "ability to sell"), a predictor such as "being single and w