Output Metrics: Velocity and Predictability

Output metrics focus on the efficiency and cadence with which an agile team delivers work.

Unlike Output metrics, they do not directly measure business value, but rather how much work the team performs in a given period and how predictable its delivery is.

Two of the most common production metrics are Velocity and Predictability.

They are useful tools for short-term planning and for understanding team capability, but should be interpreted with care and never become the primary objective.

Velocity (Story Points per Iteration) and its Use in Planning

Velocity is probably the most popular production metric, especially in teams using Scrum and estimating with Story Points.

It represents the total number of Story Points corresponding to backlog items that the team has completed (brought to "Done") during an iteration or Sprint. After several iterations, a historical average velocity can be calculated.

This average serves as an empirical guide for planning the next Sprint, helping the team to more realistically forecast how many story points they can commit to completing.

It is a useful tool for short-term predictions based on the team's past performance.

Predictability (Committed vs. Delivered)

Predictability measures the reliability of the team in delivering the work they committed to at the beginning of an iteration.

It is typically calculated as the ratio (or percentage) between the Story Points actually completed ("Done" status) at the end of the Sprint and the Story Points the team committed to during Sprint Planning.

The goal is not necessarily to always achieve 100% (which could indicate a lack of ambition), but to achieve high and stable predictability.

High predictability indicates that the team has a good understanding of its capabilities and can make reliable commitments, which builds confidence.

Consistently low predictability may signal underlying problems in estimating, planning or impediment management.

Why Increasing Velocity Should Not Be the Goal

It is crucial not to set speed increase as a goal in and of itself. Doing so is often counterproductive because of Goodhart's Law ("When a measure becomes a goal, it ceases to be a good measure").

Pressure to increase speed can lead to:

• Point inflation: The team starts estimating the same work with more points to appear higher velocity, with no real improvement.
• Quality sacrifice: Shortcuts are taken or the Definition of "Done" is ignored to complete more points.
• Overload and burnout: The team is pressured to work at an unsustainable pace.
• Wrong focus: Prioritizing the number of points over actu