Using Story Points for Planning (Speed and Predictability)

Once a team has adopted estimating with History Points, these relative numbers become a valuable tool for short-term planning and expectation management.

By tracking how many story points the team completes in each iteration (Sprint), metrics such as Velocity and Predictability can be obtained.

These metrics help the team understand their capacity, make more realistic forecasts about how much work they can tackle in the near future, and improve their planning process.

However, it is crucial to use these metrics as learning and adaptation tools, not as rigid targets.

Calculating Team Velocity

Velocity is a measure of the amount of work (expressed in Story Points) that a team consistently completes in an iteration or Sprint.

It is calculated by adding up the story points of all user stories that the team brought to a "Done" status (DoD compliant) during that period.

How to use: After a few iterations, an average velocity can be calculated.

This historical average helps the team forecast how many story points they can reasonably commit to completing in the next Sprint during the Sprint Planning meeting. It allows predictions to be made based on past performance.

Important: Velocity is specific to each team and its context; it should not be used to compare teams. It is a tool for internal team planning.

The Predictability Metric (Committed vs. Realized)

Predictability measures how well the team accomplishes the work it committed to do at the beginning of an iteration.

It is typically calculated as the ratio (or percentage) of story points actually completed ("Done") to story points committed to at the start of the Sprint.

Goal: A team seeks to have high and stable predictability (ideally close to 100%, though never perfect).

High predictability indicates that the team understands its capability well and can make realistic commitments, which builds trust with stakeholders.

Interpretation: Consistently low predictability may indicate problems in estimating, planning, or unresolved impediments.

Over-committing is as problematic as under-committing.

Avoid Using Velocity As A Target (Goodhart's Law)

Although velocity is useful for planning, it is crucial not to make it a target to be increased at all costs.

Attempting to artificially "improve" speed is often counterproductive:

Point Inflation: The team may start assigning more points to similar stories to appear higher speed, without the actual performance improving (they change the baseline).

Quality Sacrifice: Pressure to increase points can lead to skipping DoD steps or accumulating technical debt.

Demotivation: Using speed as an individual or comparative performance metric creates pressure and undesirable behaviors.

Goodhart's Law: "When a